What is the earliest point that Max Verstappen could win the 2024 drivers’ championship?

As the 2024 Formula 1 season enters into its closing stages, the battles in both championships are still very much alive, with Max Verstappen facing a challenge from Lando Norris in the drivers’ standings while McLaren are being chased by Ferrari in the constructors’.
Verstappen wrapped up his third title in 2023 at the Qatar Sprint with five rounds remaining – but how soon could he realistically claim the championship this time around, and what does Norris have to do to beat him? We’ve rounded up the answers to those questions and more below…
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There is a maximum of 120 points up for grabs across the remaining four rounds of the season. To score this amount, a driver would have to take victory in all four Grands Prix (with each awarding 25 points), win both Sprints in Sao Paulo and Qatar (taking eight points for each triumph) and score the additional point for setting the fastest lap at every race.
The maths shows that Verstappen could win the drivers’ championship as early as the Las Vegas Grand Prix – however, this would require the Red Bull man to score maximum points in Sao Paulo and Vegas while Norris would have to come away with nothing.
That scenario would give Verstappen an unbeatable lead of 106 points heading into the final two rounds in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
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If Norris and Verstappen were to finish every remaining event (including both Sprint and Grands Prix but without any fastest lap bonuses) in a one-two formation – with Norris ahead – the title fight would go down to Abu Dhabi. That would leave Verstappen with a 24-point lead going into the final race and, should the pair finish in a one-two formation again, Verstappen would win by 17 points.
Norris needs to outscore Verstappen at every race weekend in order to keep his chances of beating the three-time champion alive, but also needs a weekend where he can make significant inroads in the points deficit. The Briton came away from the Mexico City Grand Prix with more points than his title rival, which brought the gap down to 47 points.
The two drivers still mathematically in with a chance of beating Verstappen and Norris are Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri. Leclerc is currently 71 points adrift of Verstappen in third, while Piastri holds a 111-point deficit.
Given that 120 points are available in the final four rounds, Piastri would need to maximise his points haul – with Verstappen, Norris and Leclerc barely scoring – to realistically be in with a chance. Leclerc, meanwhile, also faces a very distant chance but arrives into the latter stages off the back of a good run of form.
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McLaren lead the constructors’ standings by 29 points from Ferrari entering into the final four rounds, with a total of 206 points available in the last few races. If the Scuderia were to score maximum points in Sao Paulo – with McLaren claiming the next best results possible – the Italian squad would still trail their rivals by three points.
However, if Ferrari were again to outscore McLaren at Las Vegas, they could overhaul the Woking outfit at the top of the standings. Equally, if McLaren score maximum points in Sao Paulo and Las Vegas – and Ferrari came away with nothing – the papaya team could win the title as early as Vegas.
Red Bull, meanwhile, are 54 points adrift of McLaren and 25 points away from Ferrari ahead of the last four rounds, but technically a weekend of maximum points in Sao Paulo – with McLaren scoring less than five points and Ferrari less than 34 – could see them get back into the lead.
Mercedes are also still mathematically in with a chance, albeit it a very distant one, as they sit some way off the top three in the standings via a lonely fourth place.
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While overhauling Verstappen could be quite the feat for Norris or his rivals, history has showed us on more than one occasion that launching an against-the-odds title comeback can be done – as the examples below prove…
1976 – James Hunt seals the title after memorable battle with Niki Lauda
The 1976 season is one that stands out in F1 history, with it being known for the championship battle that played out between James Hunt and Niki Lauda. It was Lauda who looked on course for the title early in the campaign, having built a 23-point lead entering into Round 10 of 16 at the German Grand Prix.
However, the Austrian suffered serious burns in a horrifying fiery accident at the event – before making a remarkable recovery that saw him return just two months later. Lauda still led Hunt by three points ahead of the season finale at Suzuka, but torrential rain in the race led to the championship leader withdrawing, meaning that Hunt’s third place was enough to seal the title for the Briton.
1982 – Keke Rosberg claims the championship with just one win
Keke Rosberg was back in fifth place of the drivers’ standings with just over two thirds of the 1982 season complete, and the Finn had yet to score a win. However, the picture changed when leader Didier Pironi sustained career-ending injuries in a crash at the German Grand Prix.
Rosberg started to close in at the top of the table and claimed a long-awaited victory in Switzerland, giving him a nine-point lead over John Watson ahead of the finale, the Caesars Palace Grand Prix. While Watson finished second and Rosberg down in fifth, the result still gave the championship to Rosberg.
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2007 – Kimi Raikkonen outscores both McLarens… just
The 2007 title fight was filled with drama, much of it centred around the tense rivalry that was unfolding at McLaren between team mates Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso. With five rounds remaining, Hamilton led the standings by five points from Alonso, with Ferrari’s Kimi Raikkonen back in fourth place.
Victories in Belgium and China helped Raikkonen to close in, putting the Finn just seven points behind Hamilton entering into the finale in Brazil. Another win there for Raikkonen – with Alonso and Hamilton back in third and seventh respectively – sealed the Ferrari driver’s sole world championship by only one point from the McLaren duo.
2012 – Sebastian Vettel overcomes final race drama in an eventful season
While the 2024 season has witnessed seven drivers taking wins, the 2012 campaign was also one that featured multiple victors, with each of the opening seven races being won by a different name. It was Fernando Alonso who went on to build a lead in the championship, though, while Sebastian Vettel was 24 points adrift with eight rounds remaining.
However, a run of four consecutive wins resulted in Vettel snatching the lead and heading Alonso by 13 points entering into the Brazilian Grand Prix showdown. Vettel’s chances immediately looked to have hit a major snag when he fell to the back of the field after a first-lap incident – but the Red Bull driver survived a damaged car, a slow pit stop and changing weather conditions to finish in P6, giving him the title by three points from second-placed Alonso.
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